Preseason Rankings
Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#186
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.9#232
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#158
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#226
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 6.1% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 1.3% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.8 12.5 13.6
.500 or above 39.3% 52.9% 27.2%
.500 or above in Conference 43.3% 51.8% 35.8%
Conference Champion 4.4% 6.4% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 13.6% 9.2% 17.4%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
First Round4.1% 5.8% 2.6%
Second Round0.9% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Home) - 47.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.60.1 - 1.6
Quad 1b0.2 - 1.50.3 - 3.1
Quad 21.2 - 3.71.4 - 6.8
Quad 34.5 - 5.96.0 - 12.7
Quad 47.3 - 3.013.3 - 15.7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 128   Northern Kentucky L 70-74 47%    
  Nov 23, 2018 283   Oral Roberts W 73-68 68%    
  Nov 24, 2018 176   James Madison L 71-72 49%    
  Nov 25, 2018 245   @ Oakland W 75-71 53%    
  Nov 28, 2018 235   @ Green Bay W 77-74 50%    
  Dec 05, 2018 131   UC Davis L 67-71 48%    
  Dec 08, 2018 33   @ Butler L 66-78 9%    
  Dec 17, 2018 270   Western Illinois W 73-68 76%    
  Dec 20, 2018 128   @ Northern Kentucky L 70-74 29%    
  Dec 22, 2018 350   Chicago St. W 82-67 94%    
  Dec 29, 2018 10   @ Michigan St. L 63-80 5%    
  Jan 05, 2019 142   @ Ohio L 73-76 31%    
  Jan 08, 2019 170   @ Miami (OH) L 69-70 38%    
  Jan 12, 2019 184   Akron L 71-72 59%    
  Jan 15, 2019 219   Central Michigan W 74-72 67%    
  Jan 19, 2019 159   @ Kent St. L 71-73 36%    
  Jan 22, 2019 65   Buffalo L 74-83 29%    
  Jan 26, 2019 184   @ Akron L 71-72 40%    
  Jan 29, 2019 142   Ohio L 73-76 51%    
  Feb 02, 2019 126   Toledo L 73-77 47%    
  Feb 05, 2019 111   Ball St. L 71-76 44%    
  Feb 09, 2019 135   @ Eastern Michigan L 65-68 30%    
  Feb 12, 2019 211   @ Western Michigan W 73-71 46%    
  Feb 16, 2019 205   Bowling Green W 74-73 64%    
  Feb 23, 2019 126   @ Toledo L 73-77 29%    
  Feb 26, 2019 211   Western Michigan W 73-71 65%    
  Mar 02, 2019 135   Eastern Michigan L 65-68 50%    
  Mar 05, 2019 219   @ Central Michigan W 74-72 48%    
  Mar 08, 2019 111   @ Ball St. L 71-76 26%    
Projected Record 13.3 - 15.7 8.0 - 10.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.9 1.5 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 4.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 4.6 2.3 0.1 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.3 3.3 0.7 0.0 9.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.8 2.9 0.9 0.0 9.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.1 11th
12th 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.9 1.8 0.4 0.1 8.7 12th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.9 6.9 8.6 9.6 11.1 11.5 10.3 9.4 8.1 6.0 4.0 2.8 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 93.3% 0.8    0.7 0.2
15-3 71.8% 1.1    0.7 0.3 0.1
14-4 43.3% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 17.1% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 81.8% 79.0% 2.8% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3%
17-1 0.2% 65.3% 30.2% 35.1% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 50.3%
16-2 0.9% 53.8% 35.7% 18.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 28.1%
15-3 1.5% 36.3% 23.2% 13.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 17.0%
14-4 2.8% 20.4% 13.4% 7.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2 8.1%
13-5 4.0% 13.1% 12.0% 1.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.5 1.3%
12-6 6.0% 7.2% 6.8% 0.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6 0.5%
11-7 8.1% 5.9% 5.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.6
10-8 9.4% 3.8% 3.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.0
9-9 10.3% 3.3% 3.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.9
8-10 11.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.3
7-11 11.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.0
6-12 9.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0 9.5
5-13 8.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.5
4-14 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.9
3-15 4.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.9
2-16 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.5
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.4% 3.7% 0.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 95.6 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%